Well for at least 4 months. Liz Truss, President of the Board of Trade seems to have secured a temporary lifting on the 25% tariff which had been applied to Scottish whisky exports to the United States (since 2019). Obviously it’s good for Scotland, the more so as during this time Irish exports have been unaffected, and whilst a small step it is a useful reminder about how important a free trade deal with the USA is to the UK and to Scotland.
There are lots of potential reasons for this temporary suspension and people will argue about E.U. membership. Certainly this tariff was one of number applied arising from, amongst other things a gigantic row between Boeing and Airbus, but I”m more interested in the global situation.
Everyone is loosely aware of the economic rise of China, and the economic tilt to the east, but, in Scottish politics this appears to be taking second place to a series of debates on how to distribute wealth rather than creating it. If this doesn’t stop there’ll be no wealth to distribute.
We have long been used to (allied to the USA) getting our way in the world. This has changed. The USA at the heady days at the end of the second war accounted for over 50% of the world economy. This reduced to circa 40% by 1960, and was estimated at some 24% last year. Almost certainly the pandemic has reduced this further. The reality is that the USA is no longer in a position to control things globally. So, expect, at minimum more tariffs across the globe, and an economic cold war between the USA and China. This makes a difference to Scotland and the UK in many ways, one of which is the likelihood that the USA will, very soon again, be pressing for significant increases in NATO contributions from European countries. The country needs to adjust it’s thinking quickly. The peace dividend after the fall of the Soviet Union has been spent and the American umbrella is leaking.
Now’s the time to press for a UK trade deal with the USA. Despite endless (superficial) analyses about the change in Presidency in the USA, the real world hasn’t changed. America doesn’t want (and can’t handle) Atlantic as well as Pacific challenges. The Scottish Government’s economic advisers are clear that the USA is, not only our biggest current partner, but is the market with most potential for increasing exports. Our politicians need to start doing more about this, and I hope they are working closely with the UK Government. The Scottish Government wasted 4 years complaining about Trump, and have a close sympathy with the Democratic party in America. So far this closeness has been confined to importing endless American social ideas. Now they must focus on trade. Meantime have a whisky, if the pubs ever re-open.
Make Scotland Better 